Recessionary signals are everyone. RV shipments are falling, the labor participation rate is extremely low, over 95 million are no longer in the work force, and the trade war with China continues to linger. All of a sudden, media darlings, economists and corporate bond traders are calling for a recession. Jeffrey Gundlach, head of DoubleLine, is the newest bear on the economy. Gunlach believes there is a 75% chance of a recession in 2020:
Jeffrey Gundlach on Thursday struck a pessimistic tone, saying there was a 75% chance of a recession before the next presidential election as he warned that the corporate bond market is a crisis waiting to happen.
Gundlach, the outspoken chief executive of DoubleLine, mockingly delivered a presentation called the “Greatest Economy Ever,” an allusion to President Donald Trump’s characterization, which the famed bond investor doesn’t share.
Gundlach, to a London audience, outlined a number of worrying signs, including declines in purchasing indexes, which peaked at right about the same time the U.S. and global stock markets did.
Gundlach said neither Trump nor China would be willing to agree to a trade deal, with the Chinese side waiting for the possible electoral defeat of the White House incumbent.
Gundlach is now considered the new bond king. He has unseated Bill Gross, formerly of Pimco. The purchasing managers index has fallen off a cliff, and connotes the recent manufacturing slump will likely continue. The much-talked about trade war with China continues to linger. It has created uncertainty in the business community, which has likely hurt business fixed investment. Meanwhile, rail traffic is slowing the the retail sector is shrinking.
President Trump has intimated a trade agreement could happen. I personally do not believe the president knows how to get out of the trade war. Conditional tariffs on Chinese imports could hurt consumer spending – the one thing holding up the economy. While Barron’s and Steve Goldstein of MarketWatch give Gundlach (and others) kudos for boldly predicting the next recession. Ralph Baker’s Shock Exchange: How Inner-City Kids From Brooklyn Predicted the Great Recession and the Pain Ahead have practically been ignored by the mainstream media.
Shock Exchange called out the folly of Barack Obama’s economic policies. The predicted the current economic quagmire and how it would happen. Baker’s prognostications are occurring just as he predicted. However, the fake news continues to treat him like the invisible man. I wonder why …