Moderna (MRNA) received Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine in Q4 2020 and the stock exploded. In late December 2020 the upside appeared priced in after MRNA traded at 5.6x Bernstein’s projected 2021 COVID-19 revenue of $11 billion. Heading into Moderna’s Q4 earnings, I predicted the company would deliver bad news. Either management would give disappointing 2022 revenue guidance or not speak to it at all. Moderna beat back competition from Novavax (NVAX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and AstraZeneca (AZN). It owned the COVID-19 vaccine market along with Pfizer (PFE), making shareholders and insiders rich beyond their dreams.

The stock has been on a roller coaster ride ever since. CNBC’s Jim Cramer pumped Moderna and its nascent pipeline. The stock hit nearly $500 per share over summer on a short squeeze and the potential for booster shots. Unfortunately for me, I was a permabear on Moderna. I assumed that once the populace became vaccinated, the vaccination runway would fall. That would lead to a free fall in revenue.

A few days ago Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel sold $400 million worth of MRNA shares and deleted his Twitter account:

The Shock Exchange knows why. Read more:


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