Novavax’s (NVAX) COVID-19 vaccine demonstrated 89% efficacy in clinical trials. This should allow it to compete head-to-head against Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA) whose vaccines showed efficacy in the 94%-95% range. Novavax can ship its vaccine at room temperature, which compares favorably to Moderna. However, the FDA no longer requires Pfizer to transport its vaccines at ultra-low temperatures. This likely puts Pfizer’s supply chain on par with Novavax’s.
Novavax cannot win the vaccine war on paper. It has to get in the game. The company is still awaiting regulatory approval in the U.S. in Europe. Meanwhile, Moderna and Pfizer have garnered advance supply agreements (“APA”) that represent over $30 billion in sales combined. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is rapidly signing deals with the Biden administration, and could ramp up supply in Europe next month. That is a long-winded way of saying Novavax could be hard-pressed to garner major share of the 2021 COVID-19 market. Its inability to grab share in 2021 is one of the reasons Novavax is 50% overvalued. Read more: