Moderna (MRNA) received Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine in Q4 2020 and the stock exploded. In late December, the upside appeared priced in after MRNA traded at 5.6x Bernstein’s projected 2021 COVID-19 revenue of $11 billion. Heading into Moderna’s Q4 earnings, I predicted the company would deliver bad news. Either management would give disappointing 2022 revenue guidance or not speak to it at all.
It played out pretty much like I predicted. Management divulged the company had advanced purchase agreements (“APA”) representing about $18 billion in product sales. The figure blew even me away. The number likely reflected Moderna’s first mover advantage and government’s desire to lock in supply as quickly as possible. The question remains, “How much of Moderna’s $18 billion in revenue is recurring?” The market for COVID-19 vaccines is expected to fall hard in 2022. Competition from Novavax, Johnson & Johnson, and AstraZeneca are expected to weigh. The first mover advantage for Moderna and Pfizer is likely over.
In my opinion, $18 billion figure was likely not recurring and the bad news was not priced in. Just when the stock was about to take a dive post-earnings, CNBC’s Jim Cramer started tweaking. According to Cramer, two unidentified sources suggested Moderna was working on potential candidates for a cancer vaccine. That’s how you value company’s now … based on what two unidentified persons said?
Cramer is tweaking so hard that Skully from Snowfall (on FX, created by John Singleton) is taking pictures of him. Skully is a local drug dealer in Englewood, CA. When Franklin Saint, Aunt Louie, Andre and Leon want to expand their crack cocaine empire, they decide to distribute through Skully. According to Manboy, who sister has a baby by Skully, the dude is absolutely crazy. When get a glimpse of that craziness when they visit Skully to describe the product and the terms.
In the above video Skully appears to put drugs into his ear in order to get a quicker high. Skully hears things; he then pistol whips a man tied up in the bathroom. He exits the bathroom … obviously tweaking, and does the “Skully dance” to the ’80s hit Egyptian Lover by Gregory Broussard. Even Skully knows Moderna is overvalued.