August Jobs Data May Not Prevent Another Rate Cut

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The August jobs report reflected showed 130,000 jobs were added, the weakest level of jobs growth:

US job growth slowed to its weakest level in three months in August despite a boost from temporary hiring for census workers, as uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war weighed on the labour market.

Non-farm payrolls rose by 130,000 last month, data from Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday, short of Wall Street’s expectation for 158,000, according to a Thomson Reuters survey of economists.

The jobs report was aided by temporary hiring of census workers. It may have been negatively impacted by uncertainty pursuant to the trade war with China. Government jobs increased by 34,000 on the strength of temporary workers. Mining jobs fell by 5,000. Commodity prices and mining activity may have been disrupted by the trade war. They could get a bump after the trade war ends, yet long term I believe mining activity could decline.

Retail trade employment fell by 11,000. Within the retail sector general merchandise stores lost 15,000 jobs during the month and 80,000 over the past year. Traditional retailers have had a tough go of it this earnings season, and it may not abate anytime soon. They are being disrupted by online retailers, while margins have compressed and same store sales have been stagnant. Read more:

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