The U.S. economy has expanded for over a decade now. Bailouts, record-low interest rates and tax cuts have created distortions pursuant to the economy’s vital signs. There is now an international manhunt for clues as to whether we are in a recession or headed for one.

The Atlantic believes RV shipments are a reliable predictor of recessions. This makes sense in that RVs are big-ticket items. Motorhomes can sell for $90 thousand and up. Given the value of materials, parts and labor that go into these vehicles, RV sales can definitely move the needle for the economy. Since RVs are considered discretionary items, a pullback in sales could also be a harbinger of a fall in other discretionary items.

RV shipments were white at the end of 2017. Record low interest rates and favorable demographics – consumers between the ages of 55 and 74 have been growing – helped. Shipments began to fall off in the second half of 2018, as RV dealers may have been oversupplied. The decline in shipments has continued this year. Read more:

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