Due to concerns over future economic growth and financial markets volatility, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could end the balance sheet unwind fairly soon:

Volatility in financial markets and an inability to meet the Fed’s inflation targets could be the catalysts for the policy change. I have long held the suspicion the economy would slow after central bankers ended their stimulus measures. RV shipments could be another predictor of a faltering economy; falling shipments preceded the previous two recessions. According to the Atlantic, RV shipments are a pretty good predictor:

When RV sales are doing well, the economy follows; when RV sales tank, the economy is soon to tank too … The RV industry has repeatedly fallen in advance of more widespread economic troubles. RV sales started dropping in 1999; the economy did not crash until 2001. Between 2006 and 2007, RV sales again dropped-this time 9.5 percent. The GDP still grew in that period, at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. But between 2007 and 2009 GDP growth slowed to 1.7 percent, and dropped 2 percent between 2008 and 2009.

RV shipments for January 2019 were 25,540, down 40% Y/Y. Towables fell 41%, while motorhomes fell 33%. This follows a 22% decline in December 2019 and a 4% decline for full-year 2018. The continued fall in shipments could debunk the notion that (1) the 2018 decline was an anomaly due to irrational exuberance in the first half of 2018 and (2) the trend could reverse itself in 2019. Read more:


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